Maharashtra weather 23–29 October: IMD sees a dry week and continuing heat, and gives no date for rain’s return

Despite headlines about rain returning at the end of October, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest forecasts show Maharashtra staying largely dry over the coming week. Apart from isolated showers in Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg and Kolhapur on Friday, 23 October, no district in the state is forecast to get rain between 24 and 28 October. IMD’s two-week outlook, issued on Thursday, does point to above-normal rain over central and west India in the week of 29 October to 4 November. It does not, however, name any district in Maharashtra or give a date for rain to begin.

Friday to Wednesday, district by district

Based on IMD Mumbai’s district forecast issued at 6 pm on 22 October, IMD Nagpur’s forecast for Vidarbha issued the same day, and the seven-day table in IMD’s national bulletin that night:

• Palghar, Thane, Mumbai, Raigad: hot and humid in isolated pockets on Friday, 23 October; dry from 24 October.
• Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg: hot and humid on 23 October, with a chance of light rain or a thundershower in the afternoon or evening; dry from the 24th.
• Kolhapur (including the ghats): light to moderate rain or thundershowers on 23 October; dry from the 24th.
• Rest of Madhya Maharashtra (Nashik, Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Ahilyanagar, Pune, Satara, Sangli, Solapur, ghat areas included): dry throughout.
• All eight Marathwada districts: dry throughout.
• All eleven Vidarbha districts: dry every day up to 28 October, according to IMD Nagpur.
• 27 and 28 October: the national table shows all four subdivisions, Konkan-Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha, dry. IMD Mumbai’s farmers’ bulletin expects mainly sunny weather across the state from 24 to 28 October.

The forecasts do not match exactly. The national bulletin’s day-wise warnings mention isolated thunderstorms with lightning over Vidarbha on 22 and 23 October, yet the same bulletin’s rain table and IMD Nagpur’s district forecast show Vidarbha dry. The national table also marks Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra dry on the 23rd, while IMD Mumbai still expects isolated showers in the southern districts.

37.4°C at Santacruz

IMD Mumbai’s observations for the 24 hours to 8.30 am on 22 October put the maximum at Santacruz at 37.4°C, 3.4°C above normal. Alibag and Solapur were at 37.1°C, Ratnagiri 36.7°C, Colaba 36.6°C, Jalgaon 36.5°C and Akola 36°C. Pune recorded 34.5°C and Mahabaleshwar 26.8°C. Most of the state’s main stations were between 34 and 37°C.

IMD’s national bulletin says that on 22 October maximum temperatures were 3.1 to 5°C above normal at most places in Konkan and Goa. The local forecast for Mumbai issued early on Friday expects a mainly clear sky and hot, humid conditions in the city and suburbs, with a maximum around 38°C and a minimum around 27°C today, and 37°C and 26°C tomorrow. IMD Mumbai expects no large change in maximum temperatures across Maharashtra over the next five days.

October so far: almost no rain

IMD’s figures show that in the week of 15 to 21 October Konkan and Goa received 9.4 mm, 52% below normal, and Madhya Maharashtra 1.3 mm, 91% below normal. Marathwada and Vidarbha got no rain at all that week. From 1 October to the morning of 22 October, Santacruz had only 4.4 mm (94% below normal), Pune 1.4 mm (98% below) and Kolhapur 31.7 mm (64% below), while Solapur, Jalgaon, Akola and several other stations recorded none.

The Bay of Bengal system is heading for Andhra and Odisha

IMD expects a low-pressure area to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October. It is forecast to move west-northwest, strengthen into a depression around the morning of 25 October with high probability, and intensify further over the following three days. IMD’s bulletins of 22 October do not describe it as a cyclone.

• The rain warnings tied to this system are for Coastal Andhra Pradesh (25 to 28 October, with isolated very heavy rain on the 27th and 28th) and Odisha (26 to 28 October, with thundersqualls on the 27th and 28th).
• IMD’s extended range forecast says no significant weather is likely over north, west, central and northeast India in the week of 22 to 28 October.
• In the Arabian Sea, the low-pressure area is moving west towards the Somalia coast. A second low, over the Comorin area, is likely to drift towards the southeast Arabian Sea across Lakshadweep. IMD has no fishermen’s warning for the Maharashtra-Goa coast up to 26 October.

29 October to 4 November: what the two-week outlook says

IMD’s extended range forecast, issued on Thursday, 22 October, expects above-normal rain in the second week over four regions: central, west, east and northeast India. South peninsular India is expected to get normal rain, and northwest India less than normal. The most widespread rain is expected over east and adjoining central India, the northeast and along the east coast. It also expects an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal in the first half of that week.

The forecast does not single out Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada or Vidarbha. On the rainfall anomaly map that accompanies it, most of Maharashtra falls in the near-normal band for that week, within 2 mm a day either side of normal. The above-normal shading lies over eastern India, the Bay of Bengal and the sea off the Goa-Karnataka coast.

It also helps to know that normal rainfall at this time of year is small. For the week of 15 to 21 October, IMD’s normal was 19.8 mm for Konkan and Goa, 14.6 mm for Madhya Maharashtra, 14.9 mm for Marathwada and 10.2 mm for Vidarbha. ‘Above normal’ therefore need not mean heavy rain. The outlook is probabilistic and is reissued every Thursday; the next one is due on 29 October.

Media claims and what IMD actually forecasts

• On 22 October Dainik Prabhat and TV9 Marathi reported, citing IMD, a chance of rain at some places in Maharashtra at the end of October. Both refer to extended range maps shared on X by senior meteorologist K S Hosalikar. IMD’s official text does forecast above-normal rain over central and west India for 29 October to 4 November, but gives no date and names no district in Maharashtra.
• The same reports say cyclone conditions could develop in the Bay of Bengal after 26 October, followed by moderate to heavy rain at some places in the country after the 27th. IMD’s heavy rain warnings for 27 and 28 October are for Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil Nadu, not Maharashtra.
• On 11 October Navarashtra, going by the extended range map available then, reported signs of above-normal rain over Konkan and the west coast for 29 October to 5 November. In the map issued on 22 October, the above-normal shading near the west coast lies over the sea, not over Konkan’s districts.
• On 18 October MumbaiTak mentioned talk of a cyclone forming near Ratnagiri around 26 October, while noting that IMD had issued no such forecast. IMD’s forecasts of 22 October show no system developing off the Maharashtra coast.
• An older extended range forecast from IMD Mumbai, dated 15 October, was still on its website early on 23 October. It placed the week of 22 to 28 October in the ‘large excess’ rainfall category for Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. IMD’s newer forecasts of 22 October show those days dry.

In short, as of the morning of 23 October no IMD forecast says rain will return to Maharashtra from any particular date. District forecasts are updated twice a day and the two-week outlook every Thursday, so the picture for next week may still change.

For farmers

For areas where thunderstorms are possible, the agromet advice in IMD’s national bulletin is to move harvested produce to a safe place or cover it in the field with tarpaulin sheets, and to tie and cover harvested crops so the wind cannot scatter them. This applies to Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg and Kolhapur on Friday.

Some general suggestions from us:

• The dry spell up to 28 October can be used to harvest mature soybean and other kharif crops, and for threshing and drying.
• Dry grain and soybean thoroughly before storing; damp produce can spoil.
• In Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg and Kolhapur, try to finish field work before the afternoon on Friday and keep a tarpaulin at hand.
• If you are planning rabi sowing or irrigation in the hope of rain, go by IMD’s district forecast and the agromet advice on the Meghdoot app, not by forwarded messages or headlines.
• Avoid heavy work in the midday sun, and keep enough water for people and animals.

Diwali shopping in the heat: our tips

Diwali begins with Vasubaras on 5 November, and markets are already getting crowded. If you are heading out in the hot, humid weather:

• Shop in the morning or after sunset if you can, and skip the midday rush.
• Carry a water bottle and keep sipping; don’t wait until you feel thirsty.
• Wear light, loose cotton clothes and use a cap or umbrella in the sun.
• Keep a close eye on children and older people in crowds, and agree on a meeting point in case you get separated.
• If you feel dizzy, get a headache or feel unwell, rest in the shade; see a doctor if it gets worse.

These tips are general advice. The latest forecast for your area is on mausam.imd.gov.in and the Mausam app, farm advisories are on the Meghdoot app, and lightning alerts are on the Damini app.

Sources: IMD, All India Weather Bulletin (22 October, night); IMD, Extended Range Forecast (22 October); IMD, extended range forecast maps; IMD Mumbai, district forecast (22 October, evening); IMD Mumbai, local forecast for Mumbai (23 October); IMD Mumbai, regional daily weather report (22 October); IMD Mumbai, observations (22 October); IMD Mumbai, extended range forecast (15 October); IMD Nagpur, Vidarbha forecast (22 October); Dainik Prabhat; TV9 Marathi; Navarashtra; MumbaiTak